It started with a
terrible September.
September 2022. The S&P 500 fell 9.3%. Portfolio down. In pain. And the same thing had happened, to varying degrees, the September before, and the one before that. So the question became: is this just bad luck, or is there something structural here?
Three hours of research later, the answer was unambiguous. September is statistically the worst month in market history — the only month to average a net loss across every measured decade, in the US, UK, Germany and Japan simultaneously. Not a coincidence. Not a 2022 anomaly. A structural pattern that has held for over 70 years.
Then the next question: what are the good months? November — +1.7% average, 70% win rate over 15 years. The entire "Best Six Months" from November through April. Bitcoin in October, up in 9 of 12 years. January for small caps. The data was everywhere once you knew where to look.
The existing tools were either priced for hedge funds (£40k+/year Bloomberg terminals) or too simplistic to be useful. There was no professional-grade seasonal analysis tool built for self-directed investors who take their portfolios seriously. So we built one.
What 15 years
actually shows.
These aren't theories. They're the averages from 15 years of monthly return data across every major asset class:
September
November
October
The gap between September (-0.7%) and November (+1.7%) is 2.4 percentage points per month. Over a 15-year period, an investor who simply avoided September and was overweight November would have materially outperformed one who held constant positions all year — with less risk, not more. That's the entire premise of TimingAX.
From frustration
to nine tools.
What's under the hood.
TimingAX's seasonal patterns are derived from historical monthly return data and cross-referenced against academic finance research on market seasonality. We're transparent about how it works because transparency is non-negotiable for a financial data product.
The principles we
won't compromise on.
One person, obsessed
with the calendar.
TimingAX is built and run by a single founder — a self-directed investor who got tired of losing money to the same seasonal patterns every year and decided to build the tool he wished existed. No VC, no team of twenty, no marketing department writing things that aren’t true.
That’s deliberate. A small, independent operation has no incentive to over-promise, upsell, or bury you in dark patterns. The goal is simple: build the most honest, genuinely useful seasonal-analysis tool for retail investors that exists — and charge a fair price for it.
If you have feedback, criticism, or just want to talk markets, it reaches a real person. Get in touch — every message is read and answered personally.
What TimingAX is
and is not.
- ✓A historical data and pattern analysis tool
- ✓An educational resource on seasonal market tendencies
- ✓One useful input among many for investment decisions
- ✓Transparent about its methodology and limitations
- ✓Built by investors who use it themselves
- ✗Financial advice or investment recommendations
- ✗A guarantee of future returns
- ✗A replacement for your own research
- ✗A licensed investment advisory service
- ✗Suitable as your only decision-making tool